Nakamura Dismisses 40% Favorite Status as ‘Completely Wrong’ Ahead of Candidates Tournament

Nakamura: Tournament Too Unpredictable for Clear Favorites

World number-two Hikaru Nakamura arrived at the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 with confidence despite a lengthy absence from classical competition, but he flatly rejected the notion that he enters as the tournament’s dominant favorite.

In an interview with Chess.com’s FM Mike Klein, Nakamura dismissed statistical models suggesting he held a 40% winning probability. “That’s completely wrong,” he said, laughing. Instead, he positioned himself as one option among many, estimating his own chances closer to 20% and insisting that “no one is a clear favorite.”

The American grandmaster acknowledged that up to seven competitors possess legitimate winning chances, though he believes the tournament’s structure narrows those odds significantly. “If it’s going to be a tournament where you need to win four or five games with no losses, I think realistically there are probably only four players who can win,” he explained, naming himself, fellow American Fabiano Caruana, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, and Javokhir Sindarov as the most likely contenders.

Drawing Parallels to Playoff Hockey

Nakamura compared the unpredictability of the Candidates to professional hockey playoffs, where seeding becomes almost irrelevant once play begins. “All you have to do is be in position with three or four rounds left and see what happens,” he said, emphasizing that positioning matters far more than preseason predictions.

The American top seed arrives in Cyprus with notable preparation advantages. After an extended break from world-class competition—his last event was Norway Chess 2025 nearly a year ago—Nakamura maintained eligibility by participating in what he termed “Mickey Mouse” tournaments where he held overwhelming rating advantages. A warmup match against GM Awonder Liang last week provided additional rust-removal, though Liang claimed victory in that encounter.

Venue Concerns and Newfound Perspective

Nakamura addressed the tournament’s location in Cyprus amid broader Middle Eastern tensions. While acknowledging that he and other players had expressed safety concerns behind the scenes and that alternative venues were discussed—including offers from Rex Sinquefield to host in Saint Louis and Wadim Rosenstein in Germany—Nakamura emphasized that organizers demonstrated no genuine intention to relocate.

He praised the actual venue itself, describing the Cap St. Georges Hotel and Resort in Pegeia as “quite nice” with favorable conditions. “If the weather stays the way it is today, it’ll be more or less perfect,” he noted.

Nakamura did comment on the withdrawal of GM Koneru Humpy from the parallel Women’s Candidates Tournament, calling her decision “a shame” that “mars the event to some degree, when you have someone competing who didn’t qualify”—a reference to her replacement, GM Anna Muzychuk.

Parenthood Shifts Mental Framework

Perhaps most notably, Nakamura credited fatherhood with reshaping his psychological approach to the tournament. His wife and son are traveling with him, providing support between games—a first for the veteran professional with decades of experience on the circuit.

“It’s very good to have perspective and just focus on understanding what matters the most,” he reflected. “At the end of the day, there are things that are bigger than chess, that are bigger than the Candidates. And I think for most players here, this is it. This is all they have; this is the big thing in their life.”

He argued this broader perspective provides a mental edge over competitors whose entire focus remains narrowly concentrated on chess. He concluded with a light jab at Ian Nepomniachtchi: “I’m still getting a three-week vacation here in Cyprus, so that’s better than Nepo can say.”

Caruana Weighs In on Tier Lists

In separate remarks, fellow American GM Fabiano Caruana addressed the chess community’s growing fascination with player rankings and tier lists. Caruana called this obsession a “global phenomenon,” reflecting broader trends in competitive gaming communities that rank and categorize participants at all levels.

Tournament Begins Sunday

Both Candidates tournaments launch March 29 in Cyprus. Nakamura faces Caruana in the opening round—a customary pairing of same-federation players designed to prevent any collusion concerns in later rounds. Their classical record stands at 11 wins for Nakamura, 39 draws, and 8 losses for Caruana, with Nakamura claiming the most recent victory.

Comprehensive coverage will be available through Chess.com’s YouTube and Twitch channels, featuring commentary from GM Judit Polgar, GM David Howell, GM Benjamin Bok, IM Tania Sachdev, and other analysts.